Reported
AOC Edges Rubio in 2028 Prediction Markets for First Time This Year
News record
At 4:11 p.m. on August 13, 2026, Polymarket posted that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez had moved ahead of Marco Rubio into second place in its 2028 presidential odds, with a stated 13% chance.
Evidence state
developing
A later Polymarket snapshot, registered-outlet coverage, candidate responses, or a correction to the first-this-year characterization.
Reported vs. the record
The record
Polymarket's live market page displayed Ocasio-Cortez at 13.2% and Rubio at 13.1% when fetched.
Receipts
- captured headline
AOC Edges Rubio in 2028 Prediction Markets for First Time This Year
- screenshot timestamp
screenshot timestamp
- subject identity
subject identity
The directly fetched market page identifies the event and candidates; the entity remains unreviewed in Kleory's registry.
- originating speaker
Polymarket's account posted that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez had overtaken Marco Rubio in its 2028 presidential odds.
The X page was directly fetched and exposes the account, wording, and August 13 timestamp.
- reporter publication
Polymarket published the originating market update without an individual reporter byline.
The directly fetched X post is attributed to @Polymarket.
- atomic claim
At 4:11 p.m. on August 13, 2026, Polymarket posted that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez had moved ahead of Marco Rubio into second place in its 2028 presidential odds, with a stated 13% chance.
The post wording and timestamp were directly retained from X.
- atomic claim
The market snapshot fetched on August 15 listed Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 13.2% and Marco Rubio at 13.1%.
Both candidate names and displayed percentages were directly present on the fetched market page.
- primary source evidence
Polymarket's live market page displayed Ocasio-Cortez at 13.2% and Rubio at 13.1% when fetched.
The canonical market URL returned HTTP 200; the hash covers the URL and retained snapshot text.
- response correction
The displayed percentages are a time-specific market snapshot and can change; the fetched market page does not preserve a year-to-date crossing history.
The page exposes current prices and rules but no directly retained historical series establishing every prior 2026 ordering.
- resolution evidence status
The post and current market snapshot are retained; registered coverage and independent year-to-date market history were not located.
Targeted searches of configured outlets produced no qualifying report, while the first-party market evidence remained directly fetchable.
This page is a source-linked record. It does not score a person, infer motive, or replace the preserved source material.